As the NBA regular season approaches, the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) race is heating up with discussions centered on promising talents and potential upsets. Victor Wembanyama, having participated in 71 games last season, is one of the names buzzing in these conversations.
The Quest for DPOY
To be a legitimate contender for the DPOY, a player must meet specific criteria including playing at least 65 games in a season. Victor Wembanyama easily surpasses this threshold with his 71-game participation last season. However, historical trends indicate that being on a top-tier defensive team is equally essential.
Since 2008, every DPOY has hailed from a team with both a top-five defense and a playoff berth. This historical pattern poses a challenge for Wembanyama, as the San Antonio Spurs, his team last season, ranked 21st in defense and finished 14th in the Western Conference. Despite the Spurs' overall defensive struggles, they allowed only 111.2 points per 100 possessions when Wembanyama was on the court, hinting at his individual defensive prowess.
Analyzing the Contenders
Bookmakers have weighed in on the DPOY odds, with Evan Mobley currently at +3000. Mobley finished third in the 2023 DPOY race, an impressive feat that sets him up as a strong candidate for the upcoming season. OG Anunoby also features prominently with +4000 odds, followed by Herb Jones (+7000) and Jalen Suggs (+10000). Veteran defender Draymond Green is in the mix with odds of +15000, though his chances appear slimmer compared to the emerging talent.
The Thunder's Defensive Prowess
Another team drawing attention in the DPOY conversation is the Oklahoma City Thunder. With the league's fourth-ranked defense last season, the Thunder have bolstered their squad by adding the second- and fifth-ranked defensive players by EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus) in the offseason.
Despite these additions, there are areas of concern. Josh Giddey, while playing in over half of the Thunder's games, was statistically their worst defender according to EPM metrics. This highlight of individual defensive performance shows the complexity and multidimensional aspects of constructing an elite defensive team.
Strategic Betting Advice
For those looking to place bets on the DPOY race, a seasoned approach might be wise. As one expert suggests, "My advice would be to wait a month or two and see if there's ever an injury scare that gives you more favorable odds." This prudent strategy can allow bettors to capitalize on fluctuating odds during the season, especially as regular season performances and injuries impact the race.
The Thunder's acquisitions and defensive strategy underline their substantial defensive capabilities. As noted, "The Thunder ranked No. 4 last season, and then added the second- and fifth-ranked defensive players in all of basketball by EPM in the offseason." This bolstered defense and strategic planning make the Thunder an intriguing team to watch in the DPOY discussions.
As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on these defensive standouts and their impact on their respective team's success. With historical trends favoring top defense teams, individual accolades like the DPOY hinge not just on personal excellence but also on team performance. Fans and analysts alike will eagerly track these defensive stalwarts, and the DPOY race promises to be as thrilling as ever.