The woes of the Chicago Cubs' bullpen struck again Tuesday night, marking another chapter in their ongoing struggles.
Ninth Inning Disaster
The Cubs carried a slim 2-1 lead into the ninth inning in the first game of a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The game slipped away when nominal closer Hector Neris melted down, eventually surrendering a devastating three-run walk-off home run to Brandon Lowe. The final score stood at TB 5, CHC 2. This collapse extended the Cubs' current dismal streak, having now lost 13 out of their last 18 games.
Statistical Struggles
Chicago's bullpen has been problematic, responsible for part of the team's downturn. The bullpen now ranks 25th in ERA (4.47), 26th in WHIP (1.37), and 22nd in strikeout-to-walk rate (2.23). Perhaps most concerning, the bullpen ranks 27th in win probability added (-0.66) this season. During this dismal 5-13 stretch, the Cubs have notably lost three games despite leading in the sixth inning or later, and on another occasion, they lost a game that was tied in the seventh inning.
If the bullpen had managed to hold onto those leads, the Cubs could be discussing a frustrating but less disastrous 8-10 stretch rather than the current 5-13 run.
Neris' Performance
Hector Neris was signed to a one-year deal worth $9 million over the winter. He entered Tuesday's game with a respectable 2.63 ERA, but underneath that surface lies a troubling stat line. Neris had walked 17 batters, nearly as many as the 22 he has struck out. Various performance estimators suggest his performance may be misleading, with a 4.11 ERA and 4.75 xERA indicating potential regression. Neris is 9 for 12 in save chances, a statistic that further demonstrates the bullpen's inconsistency.
Offensive Struggles
While the bullpen's issues are glaring, Chicago's offense has also been inconsistent. The team managed just two runs on Tuesday and has been averaging 3.89 runs per game during this 5-13 stretch. The offense could make the relievers' lives easier by scoring more runs, but as it stands, it feels like the Cubs have no margin for error every night.
The Big Picture
Despite the shaky bullpen, inconsistent offense, and a 5-13 record in the last 18 games, there remains a silver lining: the Cubs are only one game out of a wild-card spot. Mediocrity is widespread in the National League, leaving plenty of time to turn things around.
Tuesday's loss dropped Chicago to a 32-35 record for the season. Interestingly, the Rays improved to an identical 32-35 standing. The Cubs' schedule doesn’t get any easier as they continue their series with the Rays and face matchups with several strong teams in the upcoming weeks. If Chicago hopes to stay in the wild-card race, improvements need to come quickly in both bullpen performance and offensive output.
Fans are growing impatient, and the margin for error is shrinking. The Cubs are at a critical juncture. The bullpen's struggles have highlighted a larger issue that extends to the entire team's performance. There is still time for a turnaround, but whether they can seize the moment remains to be seen.